Actually, Collingwood's Season Reads 9-7-1, Not Frontrunner

After another gritty win, the mainstream consensus has hardened. Collingwood are the flag favourite. Not one of the pack, the pack leader. The whole competition, we are told, now sees it that way.

Actually, the record does not read like a frontrunner's. Collingwood sit at 9 wins, 7 losses and a draw from 17 games. That is a side hovering just above the middle, not one pulling clear of the field.

Take the football's honest tally on those 17 games, precisely as it stands. Of the 9 wins, 6 were earned. Three were wins they got away with. The one draw was a draw they stole. On the other side, 4 losses were earned and 3 were losses they threw away.

So of the ten results that went their way or held level, four came with the football's fingers crossed. That is a fair chunk of a season propped up by fortune rather than command. Their best work comes when they move the ball at will. Where they slip is control, and control is what wins you the tag being handed out here.

There is a grain here. Collingwood are above water at 9-7-1, and 6 of those wins were genuinely earned. Their finishing has roughly matched the chances they create, so they are not flattering or shortchanging themselves in front of goal. This is a real, functioning side.

And the honest limit. Flag favourite is a claim about what comes next, and the football here only records what has happened. It cannot crown a favourite and it will not try.

That is the claim. Whole competition, flag favourite, another gritty win. That is the football. A 9-7-1 season with three wins they got away with, a stolen draw, and slips in control.

Weigh the two.