The Back Page · Actual FootyThe 50 Funnel · Round 19 · 2026
The Back Page presents
HOT PIES AND CRIPPS
Collingwood 90 · Carlton 69 · Round 19 · the MCG
Carlton had the best player afield, the extra territory and the busier midfield — and lost by 21. Read the funnel top to bottom and the whole game sits on one rung: the goals.
What each side's football was worth on the day — and what it actually put on the board.
Collingwood
90
14.6
worth 74 · +16
Carlton
69
10.9
worth 78 · −9
Collingwood scored more than they earned · Carlton earned more than they scored
The diagnosis · the winnerCollingwood — a true winNo luck discount. The side worth 74 kicked 90 — and the finishing that did it is exactly the edge they carry every week of the year.
The diagnosis · the loserCarlton — a true defeatNo asterisk. The side worth 78 kicked 69 — and the shortfall that beat them is the one they've worn all season. Strongest read the engine runs.
Who won each part of the game
Split the match into its four jobs. Carlton won two of them — including the ground. Collingwood won the two that turn football into a scoreboard.
ADVANCE
Taking ground
COLL 1.15CARL 1.20
Carlton
CONVERT
Chances into points
COLL 1.16CARL 0.51
Collingwood
CONTROL
The contested ball
COLL 0.98CARL 1.00
Carlton
DISRUPT
Winning the ball back
COLL 1.18CARL 0.57
Collingwood
Inside 50s
51–53
Carlton went in more
Shots per entry
0.43–0.45
Both below par
Points per entry
1.76–1.30
Collingwood finished more
Collingwood's finish
+16
above what the day earned
The ground was never the game
The four tiles above split two apiece — and Carlton won the wrong two. They took the ground, and the contest for it. Neither is a place you score.
Territory is the thing Collingwood give away cheapest. They spent the season among the league's most generous sides at conceding it. Handing over 143 metres and a couple of extra entries costs them nothing they weren't already content to lose.
What they defend is the last ten metres. Sixty-nine points conceded is a winning number for this team — under their own season, close to what they leak in the games they win. The gate was open; the goal wasn't.
Both sides under-shot the day. Neither got as many shots from its entries as the football deserved, so this was never about volume. It was strike rate — Collingwood banked 1.76 points an entry, Carlton 1.30.
And strike rate isn't a one-night thing. Fourteen goals from a day worth eleven for Collingwood; ten from a day worth eleven-and-a-half for Carlton. It's the split these two have carried since round one — 5th in the league at the goals against 17th of 18.
Win the ground off a side that's happy to sell it, and you've won nothing the scoreboard counts.
The second scoreboard
The 50 Funnel — metres, entries, shots per entry, points per entry, score — each against what the day was actually worth. Both sides read down to the same shots. Only one turned them into goals.
How the Magpies won · the 50 FunnelCollingwood v Carlton · R19
Read top to bottom. Carlton win the ground and the entries; both take fewer shots than the day earns. The split is points per entry — Collingwood 90 on a day worth 74, Carlton 69 on a day worth 78.
Patrick Cripps had the biggest game on the ground. It bought Carlton nothing.
Win these, win the game
The stats that decide matches, and who won each one here. The bar is the win signal — how often the side that wins that number wins the match. Carlton won five of these seven. Collingwood won only the two shaded ones — the two that turn football into score.
The numberColl · CarlWin signal
ADVMetres gained
5760COLL · CARL5903
100%
CONVScore per inside 50
1.76COLL · CARL1.30
99%
ADVMarks inside 50
12COLL · CARL13
97%
ADVInside 50s
51COLL · CARL53
89%
CTRLContested possessions
115COLL · CARL142
85%
CONVScore per shot
4.09COLL · CARL2.88
82%
CTRLForward-50 ground balls
0.45COLL · CARL0.55
81%
Win signal = how often, historically, the side that wins this number wins the match · higher is better on every row · shaded rows are the two Collingwood won
A great game, or a great role — rarely both
Every player on the ground, placed by two things: how much they lifted their team's winning shape (up) and how well they won their own contest (right). The best sit top-right. The story of the day is the lone Carlton dot, top-right, alone — best on ground, on the side that lost.
Player performance · the whole groundCollingwood v Carlton · R19
Houston drove Collingwood, top-right. The dot sitting highest of all — won the contest, won the game shape — wears navy: Cripps, the best player afield, in a defeat decided where he could not reach.
The best man, and nowhere to kick
Cripps was the biggest game afield — 440 metres, half again his running average, a midfield beaten only on the final scoreboard. Jagga Smith and Sam Walsh piled in behind him. Three of the four biggest performances of the match wore navy, and almost every metre of it washed up at a forward line with nowhere to put it. Harry McKay, the target the whole design ran through, reached a scoring chain once. His season says five.
Collingwood never produced a Cripps, and didn't need to. Dan Houston was their best, rebounding out of a defence that bent all day and never broke. The goals came from the quiet end — McCreery, two from a season averaging half of one; Daicos, a hand in more scores than any medium forward in the game this year. One side's best player had the ball and no target. The other side's targets had the ball, and kicked straight.
Best on ground
The biggest games of the match, rated by contribution to their team's winning shape against each player's own season. The marquee is the story of the round: three of the four biggest days wear navy — and Carlton lost.
Best on ground · above season averageCollingwood v Carlton · R19
Cripps the biggest game afield at +38% on his season, with Smith and Walsh around him. Houston, at 126, was the best of the winners — the only Collingwood name in the top four.
Collingwood — the load spread across the winCarlton — three midfielders, and still short
The form that walked in
This wasn't a hot night meeting a cold one. It was two season-long identities meeting on the one axis where they're the league's most opposite pair.
Collingwood · the finish
▲ Who they are — 5th of 18 at the goals
Kicking straight is Collingwood being Collingwood. The one thing that dipped was the base underneath it — their own territory game fell below its season, a win built on borrowed supply.
Carlton · the finish
▼ Who they are — 17th of 18 at the goals
Five points a game short of what they deserve, all year. This wasn't a slump arriving on the wrong night — it's the structure they've carried since round one, showing up again.
What the evidence carries
Two season-long identities met on the only axis that separates them. Collingwood are among the best finishing sides in the competition; Carlton, all year, have been the worst. A day worth 74 came off at 90, a day worth 78 came off at 69 — and both figures are simply who these teams are once the ball is inside the fifty. There is no luck to strip out.
The sting for Carlton isn't effort, and it isn't the midfield — that engine is real, and it won the middle of the ground. It's that the one thing which decides September, kicking straight, isn't form they can wait to turn. It's an address. And Collingwood have just handed eighteen clubs the map: give Carlton all the ground they want, and shut the last ten metres.
