Actually, One of These Three Isn't Like the Others
The mainstream files Essendon, Carlton and Richmond under one heading. The football files Carlton somewhere else entirely.
The talkback line, run hard across the footy media, is tidy: Essendon, Carlton and Richmond are the season's three biggest disappointments. Three big clubs, one shared diagnosis, lumped together as the year's great let-downs.
It is a neat package. It fits on a graphic. It lets a panel move on to the next segment.
Actually, the football won't let all three share a pew. Two of these clubs are having a genuinely grim year. The third is sitting on eight wins and a coin-flip of a season.
Carlton are 8-9. Essendon are 1-16. Richmond are 2-15. Whatever word covers all three, it isn't the same word.
Start with the ledger. Carlton have won 8 of 17. The engine's read on those games: seven wins they earned, one they got away with, two losses they threw away, seven losses they earned. That is the shape of a middling side, not a wreck.
Essendon have won 1 of 17. The diagnosis is stark and honest — one win earned, sixteen losses earned. No luck stolen, none squandered. They have simply been beaten, and beaten fairly, sixteen times.
Richmond have won 2 of 17 — two wins earned, thirteen losses earned, and two losses they threw away. Closer to Essendon's basement than to Carlton's midtable. The gap between one club and the other two is the whole point.
There is a real thread here. All three do their best work moving the ball at will, and all three slip in the same phase of play — Carlton and Essendon when the game gets disrupted, Richmond when it comes down to control. And Carlton do leak points off good chances, so their eight wins flatter them less than the record suggests.
Whether any of this counts as 'disappointment' depends on what was expected of each club before round one. The engine doesn't hold pre-season expectations, so it can't rank let-downs. It can only tell you what has happened.
So the claim says three clubs, one story. The football says one club at 8-9 and two clubs staring at 1-16 and 2-15.
The word 'disappointment' is yours to hand out. Just know that the season, as played, has put Carlton in a different room from the other two.
There is what was said, and there is what the football says. We have put both in front of you — the rest is yours to weigh.